GO FOR 2

The Associated Press and SI.com have reported that the Minnesota Timberwolves are content to let Ricky Rubio’s contract situation play itself out. The Timberwolves can do this because they are holding literally all of the cards here, and Rubio is the one who has everything to lose.

The contract situation isn’t that big of a deal, Rubio only has one year left with DKV Joventut. The Timberwolves aren’t really planning on winning a championship this year, and taking part in an enormous buy-out when they don’t have to probably doesn’t sound that appealing to them. But the real issue is between the Timberwolves and Rubio himself, and that’s a battle the T’Wolves can’t lose no matter what they do.

Ricky Rubio’s father told a Spanish newspaper that (presumably because the market in Minnesota is too small) his son might just stay and play in Spain for a while longer. This sounds like the Rubios are trying to leverage Minnesota for a trade. Bad move, you don’t have any leverage.

Minnesota isn’t contending right now, they’re rebuilding, they don’t need Rubio on the court immediately. In fact, Rubio is only 18 (and weighs about 80 pounds), so Minnesota might prefer it if he stays in Spain and gets more experience, works on his scoring, and maybe bulks up a tad for the NBA. Not to mention, Minnesota also drafted a talented, experienced point guard right after Rubio (go figure) in Jonny Flynn. This gives Minnesota a chance to put Flynn out on the floor and see how he handles the speed of the pro game, and how quick he picks up a new offense. So while Flynn is working with the first  team guys in practice and learning the offense, Rubio isn’t…this favors Flynn, not Rubio.

Ricky Rubio. Courtesy of Flickr.com/richardgiles (Creative Commons Licensed)

Now, if Minnesota does decide to trade Rubio, his stock is up pretty high right now, and a team that needs immediate help won’t mind the whole buyout situation (plus Rubio will be more cooperative if this is a large-market team). If Minnesota doesn’t trade Rubio and sits on it, Rubio bears all the risk.

Its unlikely his stock will be higher than it is right now, and if he has a rough season in Spain this year, he instantly becomes that much less valuable. Now, this isn’t great for Minnesota who holds his rights in the NBA regardless, but they have option #2 in Flynn. If Rubio’s stock falls, Minnesota just sticks him on the bench, which doesn’t hurt that much because rookie contracts aren’t that bad in the NBA. What this does however, is eliminates trading partners (either because they don’t want him or Minnesota doesn’t like the return value), and so Rubio guarantees he stays a Timberwolf.

Like I said, the kid is only 18 and I doubt he understands the situation he’s in. But if he keeps trying to make power-plays where he bears the risk and has no real leverage, he’s going to find out what kind of situation he’s in…and he’s going to find it out in Minnesota. Meanwhile, T’Wolves GM David Kahn is going to put his feet up at his desk, watch Jonny Flynn to develop, and wait for a good trade offer or for Rubio to grow up (whichever comes first)…because he’s got nothing but time.