GO FOR 2

The Associated Press and SI.com have reported that the Minnesota Timberwolves are content to let Ricky Rubio’s contract situation play itself out. The Timberwolves can do this because they are holding literally all of the cards here, and Rubio is the one who has everything to lose.

The contract situation isn’t that big of a deal, Rubio only has one year left with DKV Joventut. The Timberwolves aren’t really planning on winning a championship this year, and taking part in an enormous buy-out when they don’t have to probably doesn’t sound that appealing to them. But the real issue is between the Timberwolves and Rubio himself, and that’s a battle the T’Wolves can’t lose no matter what they do.

Ricky Rubio’s father told a Spanish newspaper that (presumably because the market in Minnesota is too small) his son might just stay and play in Spain for a while longer. This sounds like the Rubios are trying to leverage Minnesota for a trade. Bad move, you don’t have any leverage.

Minnesota isn’t contending right now, they’re rebuilding, they don’t need Rubio on the court immediately. In fact, Rubio is only 18 (and weighs about 80 pounds), so Minnesota might prefer it if he stays in Spain and gets more experience, works on his scoring, and maybe bulks up a tad for the NBA. Not to mention, Minnesota also drafted a talented, experienced point guard right after Rubio (go figure) in Jonny Flynn. This gives Minnesota a chance to put Flynn out on the floor and see how he handles the speed of the pro game, and how quick he picks up a new offense. So while Flynn is working with the first  team guys in practice and learning the offense, Rubio isn’t…this favors Flynn, not Rubio.

Ricky Rubio. Courtesy of Flickr.com/richardgiles (Creative Commons Licensed)

Now, if Minnesota does decide to trade Rubio, his stock is up pretty high right now, and a team that needs immediate help won’t mind the whole buyout situation (plus Rubio will be more cooperative if this is a large-market team). If Minnesota doesn’t trade Rubio and sits on it, Rubio bears all the risk.

Its unlikely his stock will be higher than it is right now, and if he has a rough season in Spain this year, he instantly becomes that much less valuable. Now, this isn’t great for Minnesota who holds his rights in the NBA regardless, but they have option #2 in Flynn. If Rubio’s stock falls, Minnesota just sticks him on the bench, which doesn’t hurt that much because rookie contracts aren’t that bad in the NBA. What this does however, is eliminates trading partners (either because they don’t want him or Minnesota doesn’t like the return value), and so Rubio guarantees he stays a Timberwolf.

Like I said, the kid is only 18 and I doubt he understands the situation he’s in. But if he keeps trying to make power-plays where he bears the risk and has no real leverage, he’s going to find out what kind of situation he’s in…and he’s going to find it out in Minnesota. Meanwhile, T’Wolves GM David Kahn is going to put his feet up at his desk, watch Jonny Flynn to develop, and wait for a good trade offer or for Rubio to grow up (whichever comes first)…because he’s got nothing but time.

It would just take far too long to grade every single team’s draft from last night, and considering a lot of the picks went as expected, it would also be extremely boring. So instead I’m going to break down a couple of the biggest winners and losers from the whole day. We’ll be starting with the winners.

WINNER: Shaquille O’Neal

It’s easy to say the Cavaliers are a winner here too, but whether or not the trade really makes them more competetive in the East is still up in the air. And even if it does, they’ll also need to be competetive against the Lakers/Nuggets/Spurs or whatever beast comes out of the West. As for Shaq, though, this is an immediate win. Steve Kerr is committed to NOT competing right now, and in a loaded Western Conference, Shaq was never going to see the NBA Finals again, maybe not even the playoffs. But now the 38 year old 15-time All Star will have one more legitimate chance to compete for a 5th NBA title.

WINNER: Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets didn’t even have a first round pick and still managed to improve the team and plan for the future. They grabbed super-fast Ty Lawson, the driving force behind UNC’s NCAA Championship, from the point guard heavy Timberwolves (we’ll get to them later). Lawson adds speed and versatility to the Nuggets right now, and he also gets time to develop as a floor leader behind one of the best in NBA history in Chauncy Billups.

WINNER: Orlando Magic

Hedo Turkoglu told the Magic that he would be opting out of his contract this summer, which would leave a pretty sizeable hole in the roster of a team that made the NBA Finals this year. So the magic went out and traded layup-inept rookie guard Courtney Lee, Rafer Alston, and Tony Battie to the New Jersey Nets for All Star guard/forward Vince Carter. The Magic are now instantly a better team than they were with Turkoglu on board, and should be ready for another charge through the playoffs.

WINNER: Indiana Pacers

That’s right, I said it. The Pacers made the gamble of the draft, taking UNC forward Tyler Hansbrough at 13. Hansbrough is a ‘hard worker’ and all that, but he’s also creative, skilled, and athletic. Yahoo! Sports Dan Wetzel (who I normally love, as a disclaimer) noted that Hansbrough scored off of strange trajectory shots a lot in college, and those would be swatted down by NBA defenders. Sure they would, but that’s not the point. What those shots said about Hansbrough’s game is that he is creative. This guy is going to find a way to score in the NBA, he’s going to learn how to defend 2 positions, and he’s going to be a solid player. A great risk/reward move by the Pacers when the best talent was off the board.

WINNER: Brandon Jennings (mostly)

Ok, so he looked like a bit of an idiot by showing up to the Garden only after he got his name called. But the bigger story is that it appears the ‘overseas’ experiment worked for Jennings. This is a guy who had big talent, and would have had serious exposure playing in the PAC-10. Instead, he went to Italy to play professionally. Jennings made some money, gained a lot of experience, and still ended up a top-10 lottery pick. Look for more players to try this in future.

Ok, and now on to the less fortunate.

LOSER: Minnesota Timberwolves

A lot of people liked what the T’Wolves did last night, I’m not seeing it. The move for Lawson to trade to Denver was smart, now they get a first-rounder next year that they can use on a player more suited to their needs. But taking Rubio and Flynn back to back just doesn’t work for me. Sure, they’re different types of point guards, I guess. But if you’re going to count on Flynn to be a scorer and not a creater in the backcourt, it sure would be nice if he wasn’t 5′11″. This plan just isn’t going to work, one of these guys is going to get traded, and don’t think the T’Wolves will get equal value. They could have played this better.

LOSER: DeJuan Blair

I loved this guy in college, he’s an amazing offensive rebounder and plays NBA-tough ball in the low post. So what happened? Apparently it was his two ACL surgeries that caused his massive slide. Blair’s knee surgeries never caused him to miss time, and haven’t appeared to hinder his game at all, but NBA exec’s appeared worried about another Greg Oden here. Blair slid so far that he fell past his teammate Sam Young, something neither of them thought would happen.

LOSER: Cash Considerations

Cash considerations got traded all over the place last night, that guy is going to have a hard time figuring out where he’s really playing. Ok, that was a joke. But seriously, if you watched the second round of the draft you saw about 10 players essentially get sold from one team to another. I know its necessary for teams to tweak this stuff to work on the salary cap, but its just sort of funny to watch.